National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics

Tropical Depression EIGHT 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 23:47:10 GMT

Tropical Depression EIGHT 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 21:09:10 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 the center of EIGHT was located near 33.5, -73.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 6A

Issued at 800 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTNT33 KNHC 292345
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
800 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 73.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should
monitor the progress of the depression.  Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 73.8 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). 
This
general motion with a slower forward speed is expected tonight,
with
a gradual turn toward the north forecast on Tuesday. On the
forecast
track, the center of the depression will be near the Outer Banks of
North Carolina late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early
Tuesday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expecting within the warning
area, beginning by Tuesday afternoon.

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5
inches over far eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 292341
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located east of Bermuda, on Tropical Depression Eight,
located southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Tropical
Depression Nine, located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
moving off the coast of Senegal in western Africa. Environmental
conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development of
this system later this week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph
over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

A weak trough of low pressure located just offshore of the
south-central coast of Texas is producing disorganized shower
activity over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent
coastal areas. Proximity to land and only marginally favorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development while the
system drifts southwestward during the next day or so. For
additional information on the rainfall associated with this system,
please see products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at 557 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTNT44 KNHC 292150
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH OCEAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern has not become better
organized
this afternoon, with the low-level center partially exposed just to
the north of a ragged-looking area of deep convection. 
Observations
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support keeping the intensity
at 30 kt at this time.  Given the system's currently disorganized
appearance, it does not seem likely that there will be much
strengthening in the short term.  Since the cyclone will be moving
over very warm waters and in an environment of moderate westerly
shear, however, gradual intensification is expected during the next
couple of days.  When the system nears the Florida Gulf coast,
increasing upper-level winds should limit strengthening.  The
official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus.

Based on fixes from the NOAA aircraft, the motion is a slow 290/4
kt.  There is little change to the expected steering flow
evolution.
In 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging
over the southeastern United States.  This feature should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the
eastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern
Florida.  The official track forecast is essentially a blend of the
latest ECMWF and GFS predictions.

Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as
tomorrow morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 24.0N  84.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 24.2N  85.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 24.6N  86.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 25.5N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 26.8N  86.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 29.3N  83.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 32.5N  77.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 35.0N  70.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Depression NINE Graphics

Tropical Depression NINE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 20:58:01 GMT

Tropical Depression NINE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 21:09:41 GMT

Hurricane GASTON Graphics

Hurricane GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 20:45:00 GMT

Hurricane GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 21:08:37 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092016)

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 the center of NINE was located near 24.0, -84.8 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTNT34 KNHC 292056
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

CORRECTED HEADLINE

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 84.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 84.8 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h)
and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Tuesday night
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday.  On the
forecast track, the center will continue to move away from western
Cuba, and move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next
48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over western Cuba through Wednesday.
Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 12 inches are possible over
western Cuba.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods
and mud slides.  Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are
possible over much of the Florida peninsula through Thursday.
Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible along the west
coast of Florida from Naples to Steinhatchee.  This rainfall may
cause flooding and flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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