National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
ABNT20 KNHC 041136
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.
A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles off the west coast
of Africa is expected to move south of the Cape Verde Islands
tonight and Saturday. This system continues to show signs of
organization and has the potential for some development as it moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015
000 WTNT41 KNHC 040844 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015 Fred continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and east of the center despite being affected by at least 30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 30 and 45 kt, and based on these data the initial intensity remains 35 kt. Fred has continued to turn a little to the left and the initial motion is now 275/9. The cyclone or its remnants is expected to recurve between the subtropical ridge to the east and a deep-layer trough to the west during the forecast period. While the track guidance agrees with this scenario, there remain some difference in the speed after recurvature between the slower GFS and the faster ECMWF and UKMET. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track with a small nudge to the east after 72 hours, and it splits the difference between the faster and slower track guidance mentioned above. It may sound like a broken record, but Fred is expected to remain in an environment of strong shear and dry air for the next 36-48 hours. This should cause the system the degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours. The dynamical models suggests that the shear should decrease after 48 hours, although there is poor agreement between them as to what the upper-level wind pattern will be near Fred. The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models forecast Fred or its remnants to intensify during that time, while the ECMWF and NAVGEM models show little intensification. Based on these forecasts and the statistical guidance, the intensity forecast calls for Fred to regain tropical cyclone status at around 96 hours, albeit with a considerable amount of uncertainty. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 22.1N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 22.3N 38.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 22.6N 40.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 23.2N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 24.1N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 27.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 29.5N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H 09/0600Z 32.0N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ Forecaster Beven
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015
000 FONT11 KNHC 040843 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
...FRED CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 4 the center of FRED was located near 22.1, -37.2 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015
000 WTNT31 KNHC 040843 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015 ...FRED CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 37.2W ABOUT 960 MI...1540 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 37.2 West. Fred is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed is forecast by early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is in an area of strong upper-level winds, and it is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area Friday night or Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015
000 WTNT21 KNHC 040842 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 37.2W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 15SE 15SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 37.2W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 36.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.3N 38.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.6N 40.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.2N 41.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.1N 42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 29.5N 39.0W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 32.0N 36.5W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 37.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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