National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016
000 WTNT42 KNHC 251434 TCDAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016 While Karl was producing a large shield of deep convection earlier, the convective tops have since warmed substantially and decreased in coverage. The cyclone's cloud pattern resembles a baroclinic leaf, which is the typical satellite signature of a system that has become a frontal wave. The leading edge of a stratocumulus cloud deck, indicative of cold-air advection, is also encroaching on the low-level center. Based on these developments and FSU Phase Space diagrams that already show the cyclone as cold core, Karl is being declared an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity estimate is held at 60 kt in agreement with earlier Global Hawk sonde data and the cyclone's rapid translational speed. Global models show Post- Tropical Karl being absorbed by a larger extratropical storm over the North Atlantic after about 24 hours. A series of earlier microwave images showed that the center was rapidly becoming deformed due to nearly 50 kt of southwesterly shear. Since this has made finding the location of the low-level center difficult, the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 055/42. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to accelerate a bit further toward the northeast and then turn north-northeast before losing its identity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 39.9N 47.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 26/0000Z 45.0N 39.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1200Z 52.5N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016
000 FONT12 KNHC 251433 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
...KARL BECOMES POST-TROPICAL WHILE RACING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 25 the center of KARL was located near 39.9, -47.9 with movement NE at 49 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016
000 WTNT32 KNHC 251433 TCPAT2 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016 ...KARL BECOMES POST-TROPICAL WHILE RACING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.9N 47.9W ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 49 MPH...80 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl was located near latitude 39.9 North, longitude 47.9 West. The post- tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 49 mph (80 km/h), and this motion with some further increase in forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the north-northeast should occur by Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast before Karl is absorbed by a larger extratropical storm over the North Atlantic on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this Karl. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016
000 WTNT22 KNHC 251432 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 47.9W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 43 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT.......140NE 160SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 360SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 47.9W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 50.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 45.0N 39.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 180SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 52.5N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 270SE 150SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 47.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON KARL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
ABNT20 KNHC 251138
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race,
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southernmost
Cabo Verde Islands is moving westward at around 20 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands, the
southern Caribbean Sea, and the northern coast of South America
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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