National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 041136
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles off the west coast
of Africa is expected to move south of the Cape Verde Islands
tonight and Saturday. This system continues to show signs of
organization and has the potential for some development as it moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm FRED Graphics

Tropical Storm FRED 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 08:45:23 GMT

Tropical Storm FRED 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 09:07:52 GMT

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 22

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

000
WTNT41 KNHC 040844
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

Fred continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and east
of the center despite being affected by at least 30 kt of westerly
vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment.  Various subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 30 and 45
kt, and based on these data the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

Fred has continued to turn a little to the left and the initial
motion is now 275/9.  The cyclone or its remnants is expected to
recurve between the subtropical ridge to the east and a deep-layer
trough to the west during the forecast period.  While the track
guidance agrees with this scenario, there remain some difference in
the speed after recurvature between the slower GFS and the faster
ECMWF and UKMET. The new forecast track is an update of the
previous
track with a small nudge to the east after 72 hours, and it splits
the difference between the faster and slower track guidance
mentioned above.

It may sound like a broken record, but Fred is expected to remain
in an environment of strong shear and dry air for the next 36-48
hours.  This should cause the system the degenerate into a remnant
low within 24 hours.  The dynamical models suggests that the shear
should decrease after 48 hours, although there is poor agreement
between them as to what the upper-level wind pattern will be near
Fred.  The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models forecast Fred or its
remnants to intensify during that time, while the ECMWF and NAVGEM
models show little intensification.  Based on these forecasts and
the statistical guidance, the intensity forecast calls for Fred to
regain tropical cyclone status at around 96 hours, albeit with a
considerable amount of uncertainty.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 22.1N  37.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 22.3N  38.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 22.6N  40.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 23.2N  41.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z 24.1N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 27.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z 29.5N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H  09/0600Z 32.0N  36.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

000
FONT11 KNHC 040843
PWSAT1
                                                                   

TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22            

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015              

0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015                                           

                                                                   

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE
22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 

35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                         

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE        

PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z
TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z
WED
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

$$                                                                 

FORECASTER BEVEN                                                   

Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)

...FRED CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 4 the center of FRED was located near 22.1, -37.2 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 22

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

000
WTNT31 KNHC 040843
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

...FRED CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 37.2W
ABOUT 960 MI...1540 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 37.2 West. Fred is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through early Saturday.  A turn
toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed is forecast by
early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.
Fred is in an area of strong upper-level winds, and it is expected
to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area Friday night or
Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 22

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

000
WTNT21 KNHC 040842
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  37.2W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  15SE  15SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  37.2W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  36.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.3N  38.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.6N  40.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.2N  41.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.1N  42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.0N  42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH
DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 29.5N  39.0W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 32.0N  36.5W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N  37.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Make this page Your Homepage

3,099,450
Attention Advertisers!
Contact us today to
place your banner
above with your
message and link to
your website for a
fraction of what you
may be paying for
other advertising.