National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics

Tropical Storm Harvey 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 05:39:04 GMT

Tropical Storm Harvey 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 03:25:50 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

...WEATHER DETERIORATING IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS HARVEY APPROACHES... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Aug 18 the center of Harvey was located near 13.0, -58.1 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 3A

Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 180537
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
200 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

...WEATHER DETERIORATING IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS HARVEY
APPROACHES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 58.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 6 to 18 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 58.1 West.  Harvey is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a continued
westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Harvey should
move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean
Sea
later today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles within the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area later today.

RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from
Martinique southward to Grenada.   These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 180533
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located just east of the Windward Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands
continues to show signs of organization. While this system
does not yet appear to have a closed circulation, only a slight
increase in organization could lead to the formation of a tropical
depression before upper-level winds become less favorable for
development early next week. The low is expected to move
west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and
interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few
hundred miles west and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for
some development early next week while the system moves west-
northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

000
WTNT44 KNHC 180231
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

Since an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft departed the storm a
few hours ago, the cloud pattern of Harvey hasn't changed much.
Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 30 kt,
and based on the earlier aircraft measurements the current
intensity is held at 35 kt.  The storm is in a moderate easterly
shear environment, which should allow only slow strengthening for
the next couple of days.  After that, the dynamical models indicate
that a decrease in shear should occur.  As noted earlier, however,
the GFS and ECMWF global models do not show strengthening of Harvey
and in fact practically dissipate it during the forecast period.
This suggests something unfavorable in the environment besides
shear
ahead of the system, perhaps some drier air or subsidence.  The
official intensity forecast shows modest strengthening and is
generally close to the model consensus which includes the
statistical/dynamical guidance and the regional hurricane models
(that do show some strengthening).

The motion continues westward or 270/16.  There is no change to the
track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory package.
Harvey should remain embedded in the flow on the south side of a
strong mid-level ridge throughout most of the forecast period,
which should steer the system on a continued westward track.  Near
the end of period, the guidance suggests a slightly more northward
motion with some deceleration.  The official forecast track is near
the dynamical model consensus and very close to the previous NHC
track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 13.0N  57.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 13.2N  59.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 13.6N  63.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 13.9N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 14.1N  70.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 14.8N  78.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 16.0N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 17.5N  89.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

000
FONT14 KNHC 180231
PWSAT4
                                                                   

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3          

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017              

0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017                                           

                                                                   

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR      

LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   

WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                              

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY             

64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z
TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z
WED
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7(
7)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8(
9)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  
6(11)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3(
3)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8) 
16(24)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5(
6)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1(
1)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4) 
10(14)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2(
3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22) 
10(32)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  
4(11)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1(
3)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  
1(20)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X(
5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X(
1)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1(
4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X(
9)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)  
X(12)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X(
7)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2(
4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1(
3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X(
3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  
X(10)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)  
X(12)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   2(16)  
X(16)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X(
8)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X(
9)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
AVES           34  X   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X(
9)
 
DOMINICA       34  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X(
7)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  3  13(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)  
X(16)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  6  34(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)  
X(40)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  3  21(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)  
X(24)
 
BARBADOS       34 18   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)  
X(20)
 
$$                                                                 

FORECASTER PASCH                                                   

Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

000
WTNT24 KNHC 180230
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  57.4W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  57.4W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  56.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.2N  59.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.6N  63.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.9N  67.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.1N  70.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.8N  78.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH
DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N  89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N  57.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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