National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 14:32:56 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 15:04:36 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL Forecast Discussion Number 45

Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016

000
WTNT42 KNHC 251434
TCDAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016

While Karl was producing a large shield of deep convection earlier,
the convective tops have since warmed substantially and decreased
in
coverage. The cyclone's cloud pattern resembles a baroclinic leaf,
which is the typical satellite signature of a system that has
become
a frontal wave.  The leading edge of a stratocumulus cloud deck,
indicative of cold-air advection, is also encroaching on the
low-level center.  Based on these developments and FSU Phase Space
diagrams that already show the cyclone as cold core, Karl is being
declared an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity estimate
is
held at 60 kt in agreement with earlier Global Hawk sonde data and
the cyclone's rapid translational speed.  Global models show Post-
Tropical Karl being absorbed by a larger extratropical storm over
the North Atlantic after about 24 hours.

A series of earlier microwave images showed that the center was
rapidly becoming deformed due to nearly 50 kt of southwesterly
shear.  Since this has made finding the location of the low-level
center difficult, the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain
055/42.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to accelerate a bit
further toward the northeast and then turn north-northeast before
losing its identity.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 39.9N  47.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  26/0000Z 45.0N  39.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/1200Z 52.5N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 45

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016

000
FONT12 KNHC 251433
PWSAT2
                                                                   

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  45     

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016              

1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016                                           

                                                                   

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 

LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   

WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                             

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE        

PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z
THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z
FRI
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

$$                                                                 

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN                                              

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL (AT2/AL122016)

...KARL BECOMES POST-TROPICAL WHILE RACING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 25 the center of KARL was located near 39.9, -47.9 with movement NE at 49 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL Public Advisory Number 45

Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016

000
WTNT32 KNHC 251433
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016

...KARL BECOMES POST-TROPICAL WHILE RACING INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 47.9W
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 49 MPH...80 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl
was located near latitude 39.9 North, longitude 47.9 West. The
post-
tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 49 mph (80
km/h), and this motion with some further increase in forward speed
is expected today.  A turn toward the north-northeast should occur
by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow weakening is forecast before Karl is absorbed by a
larger extratropical storm over the North Atlantic on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this Karl.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
available on the Web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL Forecast Advisory Number 45

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016

000
WTNT22 KNHC 251432
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  47.9W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  43 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  80SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE  90SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 360SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  47.9W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N  50.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 45.0N  39.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 150SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 180SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 52.5N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 270SE 150SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N  47.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON KARL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 251138
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southernmost
Cabo Verde Islands is moving westward at around 20 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands, the
southern Caribbean Sea, and the northern coast of South America
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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