National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
ABNT20 KNHC 210558
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Jerry, located more than a hundred miles
north of the northern Leeward Islands.
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently conducive
for some development, and a tropical depression could form on Sunday
or early next week while the system moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands on
Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development by the middle of next week once the wave moves out of
the northeastern Caribbean Sea. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if
necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on
those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti continues
to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Due to
strong upper-level winds, significant development of this system is
not expected while it moves slowly west-northwestward during the
next couple of days. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba
through the weekend, potentially causing flash flooding and
mudslides in areas of high terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
by Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Sep 21 the center of Jerry was located near 21.0, -63.5 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
000 WTNT35 KNHC 210556 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 63.5W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 63.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to recurve over the western Atlantic during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western Atlantic on Monday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is estimated to be 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Barbuda, St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is also forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019
000 WTNT45 KNHC 210259 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 Jerry has been displaying a classic bursting convective pattern with a nearly circular CDO that expanded over the circulation since the last advisory. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission that just arrived in Jerry indicated that the center is farther northeast than previously estimated, which appears coincident with the location of the most recent bursts of convection. Since subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 61 kt to 77 kt, the initial intensity remains 70 kt. This intensity could be adjusted based on what the plane finds while investigating the circulation. The central pressure is estimated to be 993 mb based on the center drop from the plane. The hurricane is still moving quickly west-northwestward with an initial motion of 295/15 kt. The track forecast is fairly straightforward. Jerry is approaching a break in the subtropical ridge, created by a deep-layer trough currently moving across the northwestern Atlantic. This pattern is expected to cause Jerry to gradually recurve around the ridge during the next 5 days, with its forward motion reaching a minimum between 48-72 hours when it moves near the ridge axis. There is very good agreement among the track guidance on this scenario, and the only notable spread is related to the system's forward speed when it accelerates on day 5. The consensus aids are holding tough on a relatively consistent trajectory, so little change was made from the previous official forecast. Dropsonde data from a NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission indicate that anticyclonic flow continues over the hurricane at the 200-mb outflow level (except it's restricted a bit to the west), but 15-25 kt of northeasterly flow is cutting through the circulation just below 250 mb. Despite this flow, Jerry's structure does not appear to have degraded too much. Since the hurricane appears that it will move beneath an upper-level anticyclone in about 24 hours, its intensity may not decrease too much over the next several days. And despite an increase in westerly shear after 48 hours, enhanced upper-level divergence to the east of an upper-level trough could offset the potential for weakening. Accounting for uncertainties, the NHC intensity forecast maintains a fairly steady strength for the entire forecast period, keeping Jerry as a hurricane for the next 5 days. This forecast is close to the HCCA model and the simple consensus aids, but it's notable that it's up to 20 kt lower than the statistical-dynamical models by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is passing north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 20.5N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 21.4N 64.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 24.0N 68.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 25.3N 68.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 27.9N 68.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 30.8N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 34.5N 62.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
000 FONT15 KNHC 210258 PWSAT5 HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 34(68) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
000 WTNT25 KNHC 210258 TCMAT5 HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 62.8W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 62.8W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 62.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.4N 64.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 68.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.3N 68.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.9N 68.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 30.8N 66.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 34.5N 62.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 62.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG